Officer-share signal (0.77 AUC)
Share of insider Form-4 activity attributable to officers vs. independent directors. High = officer-dominated, thin board = elevated termination risk. The 'effort/governance' tell most tools miss.
All use cases
Biopharma researchLive in portalsign-in
Biopharma Intelligence
Point-in-time biopharma research — people-and-effort signals, board-backing scoring, valuation vs. base-rate LoA, interactive board-network graph.
Biopharma Intelligence reads a biopharma company through five lenses simultaneously — people-and-effort, financial runway, trial pipeline, base-rate-anchored valuation, and a public-record network of board associations. The lead signal is officer_share, a 0.77-AUC predictor of trial termination that gets buried in standard governance reporting. Surface it cleanly + you have a research view that few analysts can match on speed.
What makes it different: officer_share — the 0.77-AUC tell — surfaced as a first-class signal. Every metric carries its source date. Tier-labeled evidence on every node.
What it does
Capabilities
Base-rate-anchored valuation
Compares market-implied probability of approval to the empirical likelihood-of-approval for the matched phase × indication cohort. Shows whether the market is pricing the asset above or below the historical base.
Interactive board-network graph
Cytoscape canvas seeded by ticker or person. Click any node to expand its neighbors via the proxy. Filter by node type (ticker / entity) or flagged status. Trace VC firms across companies.
Public-record entity history
For any board member or backer, see every biopharma company they've sat on the board of, with entry date and role. Useful for tracing serial-operator patterns.
How it works
Input → output
Input
ARQT · Arcutis Biotherapeutics
- 1Pull dossier from /ticker (people, financials, trials, valuation, base rate, node walk)
- 2Pull People & Effort panel from /people (officer_share, insider trades 180d, dilution YoY, backing)
- 3Render officer_share gauge with flag badge (elevated → red 'Officer-dominated / thin board')
- 4Surface backing.backers[] with role pills — officers get distinct blue badges + 'click for track record' affordance
- 5Render valuation card showing implied / matched-LoA ratio — 'cheap' or 'rich' relative to base rate
Output
Full dossier with People & Effort lead panel, 4-card secondary row (financials / valuation / base rate / financials), trials table, node walk commentary, network graph link.
Output preview
portal · live
ARQT
Arcutis Biotherapeutics
People & effort
Officer share — 0.77 AUC tell
59%elevated
Officer-dominated / thin board
Backing — 2 prominent backers
- Heron Patrick Jdirector20 boards
- Smither John Wofficer9 boards
Coverage: SEC Form-4 reporting issuers only; absence does NOT mean clean.
Why this isn't a wrapper
Why we're not the only ones reading biopharma filings
Lots of tools read filings. Few of them are honest about what's signal vs. noise.
- Every fact carries its source date — price, status, board entry date. Missing dates render an amber 'date unknown' badge, not blanks.
- status_current_LAGGING gets an explicit 'current — lagging' pill so you don't back-date decisions against newer trial status.
- 'available: false' surfaces as 'No SEC insider data — absence does NOT mean clean' — never treated as a pass.
- Names are framed as public-record associations, never accusations. Same person + name disambiguated explicitly per the upstream's framing.
Ready to see it?
Sign in to the portal and pull a dossier on any ticker in the universe.